Design Floods Considering the Epistemic Uncertainty

The Design Flood (DF) concept is an essential tool in designing hydraulic works, defining reservoir operation programs, and identifying reliable flood hazard maps. purpose of this paper to present a methodology for deriving hydrograph considering the epistemic uncertainty. Several appropriately identified statistical distributions allow acceptable approximation frequent values maximum discharges or volumes, display significant spread their medium/low Probabilities Exceedance (PE). referred scattering, as consequence uncertainty, defines area uncertainty both recorded data extrapolated values. In upper lower intervals limits by further combining them compatibly, set DFs completely defined hydrographs with different shapes result each PE. herein proposed procedure uni-modal multi-modal DFs. Subsequently, such help water managers examining establishing tailored approaches variety input hydrographs, which might be typically generated river basins.